Learn the Skills of Decision-Making
Learn the Skills of Decision-Making
The classical virtues are all decision-making heuristics to make one optimize for the long term rather than for the short term. [11]
Self-serving conclusions should have a higher bar.
I do view a lot of my goals over the next few years of unconditioning previous learned responses or habituated responses, so I can make decisions more cleanly in the moment without relying on memory or prepackaged heuristics and judgments. [4]
Almost all biases are time-saving heuristics. For important decisions, discard memory and identity, and focus on the problem.
Radical honesty just means I want to be free. Part of being free means I can say what I think and think what I say. They’re highly congruent and integrated. Theoretical physicist Richard Feynman famously said, “You should never, ever fool anybody, and you are the easiest person to fool.” The moment you tell somebody something dishonest, you’ve lied to yourself. Then you’ll start believing your own lie, which will disconnect you from reality and take you down the wrong road.
I never ask if “I like it” or “I don’t like it.” I think “this is what it is” or “this is what it isn’t.”
—Richard Feynman
It’s really important for me to be honest. I don’t go out of my way volunteering negative or nasty things. I would combine radical honesty with an old rule Warren Buffett has, which is praise specifically, criticize generally. I try to follow this. I don’t always follow it, but I think I follow it enough to have made a difference in my life.
If you have a criticism of someone, then don’t criticize the person—criticize the general approach or criticize the class of activities. If you have to praise somebody, then always try and find the person who is the best example of what you’re praising and praise the person, specifically. Then people’s egos and identities, which we all have, don’t work against you. They work for you. [4]
Any advice on developing capacity for instinctual blunt honesty?
Tell everyone. Start now. It doesn’t have to be blunt. Charisma is the ability to project confidence and love at the same time. It’s almost always possible to be honest and positive. [71]
As an investor and CEO of AngelList, you’re paid to be right when other people are wrong. Do you have a process around how you make decisions?
Yes. Decision-making is everything. In fact, someone who makes decisions right 80 percent of the time instead of 70 percent of the time will be valued and compensated in the market hundreds of times more.
I think people have a hard time understanding a fundamental fact of leverage. If I manage $1 billion and I’m right 10 percent more often than somebody else, my decision-making creates $100 million worth of value on a judgment call. With modern technology and large workforces and capital, our decisions are leveraged more and more.
If you can be more right and more rational, you’re going to get nonlinear returns in your life. I love the blog Farnam Street because it really focuses on helping you be more accurate, an overall better decision-maker. Decision-making is everything. [4]
The more you know, the less you diversify.
学习决策的技能
经典的美德都是决策的启发式方法，旨在帮助我们做出长期而非短期的最优选择。[11]
自利的结论应有更高的标准。
在接下来的几年里，我的很多目标都在于去除以前学到的反应或习惯性反应，以便我能够在当下更干净地做出决策，而不依赖记忆或预设的启发法和判断。[4]
几乎所有的偏见都是节省时间的启发法。对于重要的决策，要抛弃记忆和身份，专注于问题本身。
激进的诚实意味着我想要自由。成为自由的一部分是我能够说出自己所想，并且想我所说。它们高度一致和整合。理论物理学家理查德·费曼曾经说过：“你永远不应愚弄任何人，而你是最容易被自己愚弄的人。” 当你对别人说谎的那一刻，其实也是在对自己撒谎。接下来你会开始相信自己的谎言，从而使自己脱离现实，走上错误的道路。
我从不问“我喜欢还是不喜欢”。我会想“这是什么”或者“这不是什么”。
——理查德·费曼
对我来说，诚实非常重要。我不会特意去主动说一些负面或恶意的话。我会将激进的诚实与沃伦·巴菲特的一个古老规则结合起来，那就是具体表扬，笼统批评。我尽力遵循这个规则。我不总是做到，但我觉得自己做得足够好了，已经对我的生活产生了影响。
如果你对某人有批评意见，不要批评个人——批评一般的方法或活动的类别。如果你要赞扬某人，那就尽量找到最能体现你所赞扬特质的那个人，并具体地赞扬他。这样，人们的自我和身份——这是我们每个人都有的东西——不会与你对立，而是为你服务。[4]
关于培养直觉上率真诚实的能力，有什么建议吗？
告诉每个人。从现在开始。这不一定要生硬直率。魅力是能够同时传递自信和爱。几乎总是可以做到既诚实又积极的。[71]
作为投资人和AngelList的CEO，你的工作是在人们错的时候做对决策。你在决策时有什么流程吗？
是的，决策就是一切。事实上，能够在80%的时候做对决策，而不是70%，这样的人在市场上会得到百倍的价值和报酬。
我认为人们很难理解杠杆的一个基本事实。如果我管理10亿美元，并且比其他人多10%的正确率，那么我的决策会在判断上创造出一亿美金的价值。现代科技、大型工作团队和资本的存在，让我们的决策被赋予越来越多的杠杆效应。
如果你能够更加正确，更加理性，那么你的人生回报会呈现非线性增长。我喜欢Farnam Street这个博客，因为它真正帮助你更加准确，成为一个整体上更好的决策者。决策就是一切。[4]
你知道得越多，分散投资就越少。